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Whether you have been around the sports betting game for a while, or are new and have been following the advice found on this site, chances are you have been to sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. Chances are you've also noticed the little "consensus" tidbit next to each game, telling you which team the general public thinks will win. You might see that a team has a 70% public opinion and feel like that may be a pretty good bet that you should make. While nothing is ever certain on earth of sports betting, this feeling is usually incorrect.
Among the most important concepts to take into account when betting on sports is this: if the public won more than they lost, sports books would cease to exist. That's simplifying things a little, keep in mind, but most of the time which is a true statement. Casinos and sport books will be in business to make money--lots of cash. If they are losing money in a particular area, they will either change the rules or stop offering it entirely. Since the world of quality online soccer - mouse click the up coming article, sport books is alive and thriving, it really is then safe to assume that they can be making money and that, over the long term, the general public loses their money.
I've been telling people to subscribe to the theory of reverse public opinion for years now. As will be the case with a great deal of the advice I have offered here at SportBooksReview, I am not suggesting that men and women blindly bet against the team with higher public support every night--just keep it in mind when doing your research. You can find some situations where observing the public consensus and comparing it to line movement may be very eye-opening, and these are the situations in which you can pounce.
Even as we discussed in our Line Movement article, there are many of aspects that may cause sport books to move the line. One such factor is just one team getting decidedly additional money wagered on it than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a big sum of cash if one team wins. Books would prefer to have a good, even amount of cash bet on both sides of a game, in order that no matter what team wins, they will come out on top because of the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). This is why it's a good idea to take a quick peek at the consensus percentages along with the line movement for the games you want to bet on--there can sometimes be some very useful hidden information to give you a benefit.
When doing your research, if you happen to view a game where the public can be very heavily betting on one team, say 70% or higher, yet the line did not move from it's original number, in which case you have to ask yourself why that is. Should the public is betting most of their money on a team, but the books don't move the number to attract betters for the other team, then it's telling you something. Either the books are confident that the general public will lose, or the big-money sharp betters have already made their bets on the other team. Either way, this really is an important red flag. Again, don't blindly bet your hard earned money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.
Generally speaking, I like fading the public--especially when there's a strong public consensus betting on the underdog in a game. As you surely already know, the common theme of my articles is research--we're discussing your hard earned money here, so it's extremely crucial that you make every effort to search out one advantage before making your bet. As will be the case with a great deal of my advice, this isn't meant to be a one-size-fits-all strategy, but part of a larger overall strategy of doing your homework and eventually finding solid money-making opportunities. If you follow the advice I've offered within this article and combine it with several of my other strategies, you will win money--the only question is: how much?
